A leading forecaster of advertising spending is reducing its forecast for this year, citing factors ranging from rising oil prices to European debt woes. But the reduction amounts to a bit, a tad, a trim — much less than the downward adjustment recently made by another forecaster.
The new forecast from ZenithOptimedia, part of the Publicis Groupe, calls for worldwide ad spending this year to increase 4.1 percent compared with last year. The previous forecast was for a gain of 4.2 percent compared with 2010.
By contrast, the GroupM unit of WPP sliced an entire percentage point off its growth-rate forecast last week. The new GroupM prediction is for a gain of 4.8 percent rather than a gain of 5.8 percent.
There are a couple of other relative high points in the new ZenithOptimedia forecast, which is to be released just after midnight (London time) on Wednesday, or just after 7 p.m. (Eastern time) on Tuesday.
The forecast calls for total worldwide ad spending this year to reach $471 billion, matching the peak level previously reached in 2008. There had been some speculation that it would take many years for global ad spending to achieve that high-water mark again.
And the ZenithOptimedia forecast also calls for “more robust growth” in ad spending in 2012 and 2013.
The slight reduction in the growth rate for 2011 is being attributed to revisions in ad spending totals in regions like North America and Western Europe.
The forecast for growth in North America, for instance, is being trimmed to 2.3 percent versus the previous forecast of 2.6 percent. And the forecast for growth in Western Europe is being cut to 3.3 percent compared with the previous prediction of 3.5 percent.
Another bright spot, relatively, is Japan, where the effects of the earthquake and tsunami on ad spending will be less disruptive than the forecasters had feared. Ad spending in Japan will decline 2.4 percent this year compared with last year, according to the forecast; the previous forecast called for a decline of 4.1 percent.
For 2012, ZenithOptimedia said, worldwide ad spending will increase 5.9 percent from this year. The agency’s previous forecast called for a gain of 5.8 percent.
And for 2013, worldwide ad spending will rise 5.6 percent from 2012. The previous forecast was for a gain of 5.5 percent.
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