Showing posts with label worse. Show all posts
Showing posts with label worse. Show all posts

Friday, 22 July 2011

Is the internet making journalism better or worse? Yes

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For the past several days, The Economist has been hosting a debate between journalism professor Jay Rosen and digital skeptic and author Nicholas Carr, as part of an ongoing series about the future of media. The proposition tabled by the magazine was that the internet is making journalism better rather than worse, with Rosen arguing in favor of the proposition and Carr arguing against it. In the end, neither one wins — or both do — because with journalism (as with so many other things) the internet is simply an accelerator, amplifying both the good and the bad. Whether society as a whole is better off is still an open question.

In his arguments, Rosen admits that the internet has damaged the traditional media industry — by causing a collapse of the business model that has supported most print-based or traditional journalism — and at the same time has led to an explosion of questionable online content that pretends to be journalism. He says:

By unbundling the newspaper and making advertising cheaper and more efficient, the internet has led to a drastic drop in newsroom employment [and] the internet has increased the supply of rubbish in and around journalism: content farms, recycled PR (known as churnalism), stories that are cheap rewrites of other stories, lists and “charticles” with no purpose other than pushing up page views.

Despite that, however, the New York University journalism professor maintains that the internet is improving journalism, and he lists the reasons why, including:

In the end, Rosen says, journalism is “not like brain surgery or flying a 747, which are not improved by having more hands on deck.” The more people who are involved in it, the better it gets, he argues. Anyone who doesn’t think that journalism is better now just has to go to the New York Times website, he says, where when news happens they can “read about it right now rather than waiting until the next morning for the paper to land.” Ultimately, Rosen says the internet will improve journalism because it will have to become better in order to survive.

For his part, Carr argues that “what the facts show is that the internet boom has done great damage to the journalism profession.” He also goes through all the data about the loss of journalism jobs and declining revenue, and says that while the internet theoretically has the potential to improve journalism, there is no sign of that happening:

If we can agree that the internet, by altering the underlying economics of the news business, has thinned the ranks of professional journalists, then the next question is straightforward: has the net created other modes of reporting to fill the gap? The answer, alas, is equally straightforward: no.

While there have been “many noble attempts” to create new kinds of news-gathering organizations online, Carr says their successes have been “been modest and often fleeting [and] they have not come anywhere close to filling the gap left by the widespread loss of newspapers and reporters.”

Carr says he doesn’t believe that democratising media — what Om has called the democracy of distribution — necessarily improves journalism, and argues that Rosen “provides little in the way of facts to support his case.” The biggest problem, Carr says, is that despite all the experimentation, the industry has not found “a substitute for the cross-subsidies that allowed newspapers to use the profits from popular features to pay for broad, in-depth reporting.”

While members of what Carr calls the “plugged-in elite” like Rosen may believe that the internet has improved journalism, this is because for web-savvy news junkies the “net is a crack house that dispenses its wares for free.” Beyond the elite, however, are the average citizenry who Carr argues are being starved of hard, objective reporting — something that he says contributes to a narrowing of opinions rather than a broadening of them (which sounds a lot like author Eli Pariser’s fears about a “filter bubble”).

So who is right? In many ways, both are. To me, the debate comes down to a battle of optimism vs. pessimism. Carr — who has written a book all about how the internet is changing our brains and making us more shallow — sees nothing but the decline of traditional journalism and a great chaos in its place. Rosen, however, sees the green shoots of new business models poking up through the ashes of the traditional industry.

It’s more than a little appropriate that The Economist debate is taking place as some followers celebrate what would have been the 100th birthday of a giant in media theory, Marshall McLuhan — who, as author and fellow Canadian Doug Coupland points out, saw many of the shifts in the way we experience media coming. Megan Garber at the Nieman Journalism Lab also has an excellent overview of how McLuhan’s beliefs about how media functions in a digital age are effectively coming true thanks to the web.

As Paul Ford writes in a very perceptive piece at New York magazine, some of the fear about the decline of the traditional media industry stems from a fear of losing control over the machine he calls “The Epiphanator” — that giant engine that churns out happy and sad stories with tidy beginnings and satisfying conclusions. In its place we are seeing something much more like the stream of content that McLuhan tried to describe, in which everyone can publish and everyone can filter (or not), and stories simply rise and fall and live and die regardless of what a traditional media outlet thinks of them.

Is that a scary future or a bright one? It is both.

Post and thumbnail photos courtesy of Flickr users Sandy Honig, jphilipg and zert sonstige

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As bad as it seems now, Nokia’s future looks worse

After revising its earnings estimates downward in May, on Thursday Nokia shared abysmal results for the second quarter. The onetime clear leader of the first smartphone era has tumbled down to what looks like the third spot for smartphone sales, definitely behind Apple and likely behind Samsung as well. With a new CEO in Stephen Elop, Nokia is surely in a transition, but a transition to what?

My first reaction to today’s results was twofold: one of sympathy and one of optimism. I thought to myself that one of Elop’s major actions so far, choosing Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7 platform for the future, was akin to quickly yanking a Band-Aid from a wound: Sometimes it’s best to just get the pain over with. But after digesting the news a little more and thinking about the path Nokia traveled to get to its current low point, I don’t see how the bleeding is going to stop this year, now that the Band-Aid is off. Here are five reasons why.

Feature phones can’t save the day. Each time I’ve pointed out Nokia’s challenges, the company’s faithful have railed at me and rallied on the general platform of “. . . but Nokia sells more feature phones than most others combined!” While that’s always been a valid point, it’s less relevant as the world transitions to smartphones. Nokia’s own sales numbers reflect this point: Total mobile-phone-handset sales revenue declined 20 percent from the year-ago period and 25 percent from the prior quarter. Combine the sales drop with a 3 percent decline in the ASP of Nokia’s mobile phones, now 36 euros ($51.20), and you can see that Nokia’s bread and butter contributed to its $692 million quarterly loss.Existing smartphones aren’t helping. So as feature-phone sales are in decline, one would hope that high-profit-margin smartphones can help make up the difference. That’s not happening, given that the company didn’t capitalize on the smartphone market like Apple and Samsung, for example. Apple just reported 20.34 million iPhone sales for the quarter, a 142 percent boost from a year ago, while Samsung is estimated to have sold around 20 million smartphones in the same time period. This happened while Nokia’s smartphone sales declined 34 percent from a year ago, with 16.7 million smartphones sold. The ASP did rise 2 percent, but that’s not enough to offset the sales dropoff.A smartphone answer doesn’t exist yet. Nokia is still at least one, if not two, quarters away from even beginning a sales transition to Microsoft Windows Phone 7 devices. Elop today confirmed that Nokia would launch a Microsoft-powered device by the end of the year. That means sales and revenues in the high end are likely to continue declining throughout 2011. And there’s still uncertainty about the first WP7 handsets from Nokia: What will make them different from those offered by LG, Samsung and HTC, for example? Again, the Nokia faithful will chant that Nokia makes hardware second to none. I’d be the first to agree with that, but there are two problems with the mantra. Nokia always made good hardware, and yet that alone hasn’t saved the company. Second: Nokia may not be manufacturing its first Microsoft phones. Instead, it reportedly outsourced the production to Compal, in Taiwan. In other words: Nokia’s smartphone transition is still fraught with risks for many reasons, and it’s going to take time for Nokia to hone its skills on a new platform.Android squeezes at the top and bottom. Clearly, Nokia isn’t competing well in smartphones, given the growth rates shown by devices running iOS and Android. It’s the latter of the two that may have hurt Nokia the most. Why? Google is activating 550,000 Android devices per day — both handsets and tablets, but the vast majority are phones — and that number is composed of devices at both the top and bottom. High-end smartphones are selling well in regions that can afford them. At the same time, cheap Android smartphones are popping up in areas where feature phones once reigned. Think of India and the next 500 million mobile users. Look to China, where Nokia moved 52 percent fewer phones this quarter as compared to the past one. In these areas, inexpensive, low- to mid-tier Android phones are arriving and offering much more functionality for just a little more money over feature phones. We’re even seeing these in the U.S.: This year offered $149 no-contract Androids with expectations of prices dipping below $100 by the end of the year.How much destruction can one brand take? Among the many negative tangible results for Nokia today, there’s a massive intangible one as well: a tarnished brand. Tomi Ahonen illustrates the global branding Nokia has on his blog today, saying “[M]ore people use a Nokia phone than drink a Coca Cola, than wear Levis’s jeans, than tell time on a Timex watch, than wear Nike running shoes, than smoke Marlboro cigarettes, or write with a Bic pen.” As sales of Nokia devices continue to stumble, the brand itself loses value in terms of consumer and investor confidence. With smartphones, the brand is tied not just to hardware but also to software and services: Consumers are purchasing brand platforms and ecosystems when they buy a handset. Think of it this way: When consumers purchase an iPhone, they equate the full package with Apple, a company that arguably sets a high bar for the entire user experience. What will customers think of when they see a Nokia smartphone after the company’s fall from grace?I still have the same sympathy for Nokia that I had over my first cup of morning java. It’s never good to see a global leader heading toward “has been” status, especially with all the innovation Nokia has brought to so many people around the globe. But the optimism I had dissolved faster than the sugar in my coffee, faster maybe than Nokia’s overall profits and sales.Image courtesy of Flickr user ecastro

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Friday, 15 July 2011

Does Google+ solve the privacy problem or make it worse?

Amid all the coverage of Google’s launch of its fast-growing Google+ social network, some — including New York Times  technology writer David Pogue, in his recent review of the service — have argued that the new platform improves on Facebook in terms of privacy protections, because it allows you to filter your friends into groups via the “Circles” feature and only share with them. But is this really a big improvement? Not everyone is convinced that it is. And some critics say the way Google has structured its new network could actually make things worse, because the company misunderstands what privacy means in a practical sense.

In his review, Pogue says Google+ shares so many features with the other social network that it looks like “a shameless Facebook duplicate.” But the New York Times writer says there is one big difference between the two that makes Google+ much better, and that is the Circles feature, which he calls “towering” and “brilliant.” Because you can share specific things with specific followers or friends, says Pogue, the service is inherently more private. He adds:

In one fell swoop, Google has solved the layers-of-privacy problem that has dogged Facebook for years… Senators embarrassed by their children’s drunken party photos. Potential employers reading about your crazy nightlife. Girlfriends learning accidentally about their beaus’ proposal plans. All of it goes away with Circles.

There’s just one problem with seeing this as a huge advantage for Google+, however, which is that Facebook has had something similar to Circles for some time. In the beginning, the network had Lists that users could create in order to share specific items with a certain group of friends (Pogue mentions Lists in his piece, but says this feature is “buried, and a lot more effort to use” than Circles). But more recently, Facebook created Groups as a way of making this ability even more obvious, and easier to configure (although some have had privacy issues with it as well).

While some users like Pogue seem to love Circles because it is so easy and intuitive — in part because of the cool graphical interface created by former Apple designer Andy Hertzfeld — others have said that the process of filtering hundreds or even thousands of people into groups is time-consuming and somewhat frustrating. This is an example of what psychologist Barry Schwartz has called the “Paradox of Choice” problem, where giving someone too much choice actually makes it less likely they will take advantage of a feature. Some argue Circles could suffer from this as well.

I’ve actually noticed this myself, despite having used Google+ for only a few weeks now: I’m already putting people into the default circles, such as the broad Following group or the default Friends group, because I can’t be bothered to decide where else to put them. In some ways, this is another example of what some call “social networking fatigue” : so many people to sort and photos to tag and status updates to read that it becomes overwhelming. The result is that many people will likely never take advantage of Circles, just as many people have never taken advantage of Facebook lists or groups.

In a recent Quora post, former PayPal and Facebook engineer Yishan Wong argues that the way Google+ is structured actually makes the privacy of the service worse than Facebook in practical terms, and this could be exacerbated for those who don’t make full use of Circles. Wong’s main point is that Google+ makes a lot more of your activity public by default because it is structured as an “asymmetric” network like Twitter — in other words, people can follow you without you having to follow them — rather than a symmetric one like Facebook where following has to be reciprocal.

The problem, says Wong, arises when someone posts a comment or status update on Google+, which is then available for anyone to comment on — even people who the author of the original comment has never followed or put in a Circle. While Facebook doesn’t allow anyone you don’t follow to comment on your status update, Google+ does. The result, Wong says, is that “strangers consider it perfectly normal to insert themselves into a conversation between you and your friends any time you make a public post,” something users may find uncomfortable and even disturbing (commenters can be blocked, but that takes an extra step):

The core failure here is that Google does not understand privacy in a social context. Google understands privacy in an information-security way, i.e. privacy means maintaining the security and integrity of confidential data. But privacy in a social realm… has less to do with maintaining integrity of information — rather, it strongly revolves around the concepts of circumspection and discretion.

Wong’s view of how Google+ handles this kind of practical, day-to-day privacy (as opposed to the protection of user profile information) may not be shared by everyone, and as a longtime director of engineering at Facebook, he may be biased against Google. Several other users have posted comments on Quora saying they disagree with him about whether the structure of Google+ is a good thing or a bad thing. Some users, they argue, may not mind that strangers can comment on their posts, and in fact may want to get input from people outside their normal Circles.

But will most people fall into this category? That’s not clear. If most people don’t use Circles properly, either because they are suffering from social-networking fatigue or the “paradox of choice,” then will they be turned off by the influx of strangers who can comment on or share their posts? If they do, Google may find itself in the midst of its very own privacy brush fire, just like the giant social network it is trying to compete with.

Post and thumbnail photos courtesy of Flickr user Josh Hallett

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Friday, 8 July 2011

Facebook trapped in MySQL ‘fate worse than death’

According to database pioneer Michael Stonebraker, Facebook is operating a huge, complex MySQL implementation equivalent to “a fate worse than death,” and the only way out is “bite the bullet and rewrite everything.”

Not that it’s necessarily Facebook’s fault, though. Stonebraker says the social network’s predicament is all too common among web startups that start small and grow to epic proportions.

During an interview this week, Stonebraker explained to me that Facebook has split its MySQL database into 4,000 shards in order to handle the site’s massive data volume, and is running 9,000 instances of memcached in order to keep up with the number of transactions the database must serve. I’m checking with Facebook to verify the accuracy of those numbers, but Facebook’s history with MySQL is no mystery.

The oft-quoted statistic from 2008 is that the site had 1,800 servers dedicated to MySQL and 805 servers dedicated to memcached, although multiple MySQL shards and memcached instances can run on a single server. Facebook even maintains a MySQL at Facebook page dedicated to updating readers on the progress of its extensive work to make the database scale along with the site.

The widely accepted problem with MySQL is that it wasn’t built for webscale applications or those that must handle excessive transaction volumes. Stonebraker said the problem with MySQL and other SQL databases is that they consume too many resources for overhead tasks (e.g., maintaining ACID compliance and handling multithreading) and relatively few on actually finding and serving data. This might be fine for a small application with a small data set, but it quickly becomes too much to handle as data and transaction volumes grow.

This is a problem for a company like Facebook because it has so much user data, and because every user clicking “Like,” updating his status, joining a new group or otherwise interacting with the site constitutes a transaction its MySQL database has to process. Every second a user has to wait while a Facebook service calls the database is time that user might spend wondering if it’s worth the wait.

In Stonebraker’s opinion, “old SQL (as he calls it) is good for nothing” and needs to be “sent to the home for retired software.” After all, he explained, SQL was created decades ago before the web, mobile devices and sensors forever changed how and how often databases are accessed.

But products such as MySQL are also open-source and free, and SQL skills aren’t hard to come by. This means, Stonebraker says, that when web startups decide they need to build a product in a hurry, MySQL is natural choice. But then they hit that hockey-stick-like growth rate like Facebook did, and they don’t really have the time to re-engineer the service from the database up. Instead, he said, they end up applying Band-Aid fixes that solve problems as they occur, but that never really fix the underlying problem of an inadequate data-management strategy.

There have been various attempts to overcome SQL’s performance and scalability problems, including the buzzworthy NoSQL movement that burst onto the scene a couple of years ago. However, it was quickly discovered that while NoSQL might be faster and scale better, it did so at the expense of ACID consistency. As I explained in a post earlier this year about Citrusleaf, a NoSQL provider claiming to maintain ACID properties:

ACID is an acronym for “Atomicity, Consistency, Isolation, Durability” — a relatively complicated way of saying transactions are performed reliably and accurately, which can be very important in situations like e-commerce, where every transaction relies on the accuracy of the data set.

Stonebraker thinks sacrificing ACID is a “terrible idea,” and, he noted, NoSQL databases end up only being marginally faster because they require writing certain consistency and other functions into the application’s business logic.

Stonebraker added, though, that NoSQL is a fine option for storing and serving unstructured or semi-structured data such as documents, which aren’t really suitable for relational databases. Facebook, for example, created Cassandra for certain tasks and also uses the Hadoop-based HBase heavily, but it’s still a MySQL shop for much of its core needs.

But Stonebraker — an entrepreneur as much as a computer scientist — has an answer for the shortcoming of both “old SQL” and NoSQL. It’s called NewSQL (a term coined by 451 Group analyst Matthew Aslett) or scalable SQL, as I’ve referred to it in the past. Pushed by companies such as Xeround, Clustrix, NimbusDB, GenieDB and Stonebraker’s own VoltDB, NewSQL products maintain ACID properties while eliminating most of the other functions that slow legacy SQL performance. VoltDB, an online-transaction processing (OLTP) database, utilizes a number of methods to improve speed, including by running entirely in-memory instead of on disk.

It would be easy to accuse Stonebraker of tooting his own horn, but NewSQL vendors have been garnering lots of attention, investment and customers over the past year. There’s no guarantee they’re the solution for Facebook’s MySQL woes — the complexity of Facebook’s architecture and the company’s penchant for open source being among the reasons — but perhaps NewSQL will help the next generation of web startups avoid falling into the pitfalls of their predecessors. Until, that is, it, too, becomes a relic of the Web 3.0 era.

Feature image courtesy of Flickr user jimw; error image courtesy of Flickr user rubenerd.

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